Science Talk

Leonard · Guest

Poll Says Obama Faces Racial Challenge in General Election

While Illinois Sen. Barack Hussein Mohammad Obama
runs dead even with Arizona Sen. John McCain in a new
Newsweek poll at 46 percent each with 8 percent
undecided, the survey took a hard look at the race factor
by employing what it called a ³Racial Resentment Index²
to further analyze voting blocs and it concluded that,
³Obama¹s race may well explain his difficulty in winning
over white voters.²

Questions in the poll that tested voters on issues that
involved race included views on affirmative action,
whether blacks or whites lost out more because of racial
preferences in things like hiring or school admissions,
whether racial discrimination or personal responsibility
accounted for problems facing black Americans,
opinions on interracial marriage and dating and reaction
that white voters would have if a black American with
equal education and income moved into their
neighbourhood.

McCain leads Obama among white voters 52 percent to
40 percent, which is offset by Obama¹s big 68 percent to
25 percent advantage among non-whites. McCain¹s lead
among white voters over New York Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton was only 48 percent to 44 percent, (In an overall
match-up, she led him 48 to 44 percent with 8 percent
undecided).

When broken down by Democratic voters whom
Newsweek identified as scoring high on its Racial
Resentment Index, Obama led McCain 55 percent to 33
percent in contrast to Clinton who ran away from
McCain by 77 percent to 18 percent. Among Democratic
voters who did not score high on the Racial Resentment
Index, Obama and Clinton both had leads over McCain
of better than 4-to-1.

White Democrats with high RRI scores favoured Clinton
for the nomination by 67 percent to 21 percent while
those with low scores tilted towards Obama 48 percent
to 43 percent.

Obama was viewed favourably among overall voters by
54 percent to 40 percent, Clinton by 53 percent to 40
percent and McCain by 54 percent to 40 percent.
McCain¹s favourability ratings among white voters
eclipsed Obama and McCain. He got positive marks
from 60 percent of whites compared to 50 percent for
Clinton and 49 percent for Obama.

In general, voters said the U.S. was ready for an
African-American president by a 73 percent to 20
percent margin, and that view was supported by a
similar margin among all white voters. However,
breaking the white vote down by the poll¹s RRI, voters
who scored high on the resentment index supported
that view by only a 54 percent to 53 percent margin
compared to low-scorers who believed that by 80
percent to 12 percent.

Other findings of the poll:

€ Democrats believe Obama more likely than Clinton
to defeat McCain by 47 percent to 43 percent.

€ Forty-nine percent of voters said Obama did not have
enough experience to be a good president compared to
44 percent, with whites saying that by a 55 percent to
38 percent margin compared to non-whites, who
believed by 60 percent to 32 percent that he did have
enough experience.

€ Forty-six percent of all voters did not believe Obama
shared the views of his ex-pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah
Wright, compared to 40 percent who believe he does.
However, while 50 percent of voters said the Wright
controversy made no difference to their vote, 45
percent said it made them view Obama less favourably.

€ Forty-five percent said Obama¹s remarks about ³bitter²
small town residents made no difference to them while
38 percent said they made them view Obama less
favourably.

€ Fifty-eight percent know that Obama is a Christian
while 11 percent think he is a Muslim. Poll Says
Obama Faces Racial Challenge in General Election

The survey was conducted May 21-22 and has a 3.5
percent margin of error for all registered voters and a 5
percent margin of error for registered Democrats and
Democratic ³leaners.²

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Congressional Quarterly Inc.