Science Talk

Mike Treder, CRN · Guest

The nonprofit Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN) today
released a series of scenarios depicting various versions of a near-
future world into which transformative manufacturing concepts may
emerge. Across eight separate storylines, an international team of
policy, technology, and economic specialists organized by CRN imagined
in detail a range of plausible, challenging events -- from pandemics
to climate crises to international conflicts -- to see how they might
affect the development of advanced nanotechnology over the next 15
years.

Future generations of nanotechnology will use sophisticated nanoscale
machinery to construct powerful products with molecular precision.
Such 'molecular manufacturing' could lead to revolutionary capacities,
including tabletop fully automated factories capable of constructing
duplicate factories in less than a day. Some experts think this may be
achieved as early as 2020.

"While a 15-year time frame for the development of desktop
nanofactories is arguably optimistic," said Mike Treder, Executive
Director of CRN, "it is by no means outrageous, as recent events
indicate [see Notes below]. That's why we think this scenario series
is timely and important."

All eight scenarios, plus an introduction putting them into context,
were posted online today at Nanowerk.com, as well on CRN's main
website. The scenarios also will be published in the peer-reviewed
print journal, Nanotechnology Perceptions, beginning early next year.

"Although the basic concepts of molecular manufacturing go back as far
as 1959," said Jessica Margolin, CRN's Director of Research
Communities, "it is only in the last few years that technology has
advanced to the point where we can begin to see the practical steps
that might bring it to fruition. What is still uncertain, however, is
precisely how it will emerge."

It is for that reason that CRN initiated a project early in 2007 to
create a series of professional-quality scenarios of a near-future
world in which exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing
might be developed and deployed. In pursuing this project, CRN pulled
together more than 50 people from six continents, with a range of
backgrounds and points of view, as collaborators. Over the course of
several months, a unique series of "virtual workshops" -- using a
combination of teleconferencing, Internet chat, and online shared
documents -- produced eight intriguing scenarios.

"The scenarios we've created examine possible outcomes of different
nanotechnology developmental pathways across a variety of nations,"
said Jamais Cascio, CRN's Director of Impacts Analysis. "These
scenarios are not predictions, and do not represent outcomes desired
by CRN. We intend them to provide a springboard for discussions of
molecular manufacturing policies and societal responses."

The scenario approach offers a tool for the examination of internally
consistent possibilities regarding a particular topic as a way to test
and reconsider strategies. While each scenario can be understood
individually, the real value of the process comes from the comparison
of multiple scenarios. A strategic response that appears robust in one
scenario may be dangerous in another; an organization, community, or
polity using these scenarios to consider how to handle the emergence
of molecular manufacturing should strive for responses that are viable
across multiple scenarios.

"We're proud of what we and all our collaborators have accomplished
here," said Treder, "but it's only a beginning. We hope this project
will help to stimulate a thorough investigation of the benefits and
risks of nanofactory technology to find what might be done now and in
the next few years to mitigate the dangers and increase the likelihood
of beneficial outcomes."

NOTES

Recent events increasing the potential for rapid development of
nanofactory technology include:

1. A study released by the U.S. National Research Council in
December 2006 reviewing the theoretical basis of molecular
manufacturing and calling for funding of experimental research.
(http://crnano.org/PR-NMAB.htm)

2. A request for proposals issued by DARPA in July 2007 for
developing tip-based nanofabrication at the threshold of atomic
precision. (http://www.darpa.mil/mto/solicitations/baa07-59/
index.html)

3. An announcement of U.K. government grants in October 2007 to
research teams developing nanomachines that can build materials
molecule by molecule. (http://rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2007/October/
19100701.asp)

4. The December 2007 publication of a Technology Roadmap for
Productive Nanosystems, marking the completion of a broad, years-long,
multidisciplinary effort to explore how current laboratory techniques
for atomically precise fabrication can be extended, step by step,
toward increasingly advanced products and capabilities. (http://e-
drexler.com/p/07/00/1204TechnologyRoadmap.html)

The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology is a research and advocacy
organization concerned with the major societal and environmental
implications of advanced nanotechnology. CRN is an affiliate of World
Care, an international, non-profit, 501(c)(3) organization. The
opinions of CRN do not necessarily represent those of World Care.